Can the Saudi’s keep it quiet for much longer.

Over here, we have some fantastic analysis about the 8% drop in production from Saudi Arabia over the last year.
In summary:

* Saudi Arabian oil production is now in decline.
* The decline rate during the first year is very high (8%), akin to decline rates in other places developed with modern horizontal drilling techniques such as the North Sea.
* Declines are rather unlikely to be arrested, and may well accelerate.
* Matt Simmons appears to be right in Twilight in the Desert, but the warning did not come until after declines had actually begun.

For me, this little bit of analysis of freely available figures is VERY significant. This, along with the risk of the US housing market problems, and the current drops in the markets (kicked off in China earlier this week) do not paint a particularly rosy picture.
Yes, this post is doom and gloom, but it’s time to smell the bacon people.