Oil supply crunch in period to 2015
Two breaking news links….
Here (Forbes) and here (TIME).
Some choice quotes…
Although investment in production capacity and therefore output is expected to increase over the next five years, it may not be sufficient to compensate for the decline in output at existing fields and might not keep pace with the projected demand increase, the IEA said.
‘A supply-side crunch in the period to 2015, involving an abrupt escalation in oil prices, cannot be ruled out,’ it added.
This gloomy assessment comes from the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization representing the 26 rich, gas-guzzling member nations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The agency is not known for alarmist warnings, and its World Energy Outlook is typically viewed by policy wonks as a solid indicator of global energy supplies. In a marked change from its traditionally bland, measured tones, the IEA’s 2007 report says governments need to make urgent, bold decisions on energy policy, or risk massive environmental and energy-supply crises within two decades – crises and shortages that could spark serious global conflicts.
“I am sorry to say this, but we are headed toward really bad days,” IEA chief economist Fatih Birol told TIME this week. “Lots of targets have been set but very little has been done. There is a lot of talk and no action.” .
Now, it would be smug of me to say, I told you so…. so I won’t. For a start, it’s too early to start proclaiming the shit has just hit the fan. Being smug is also rather unproductive ultimately. So I’ll leave that up to the other Peak-Niks if that’s their thing.
But, it’s interesting for me to see that I started to fill this blog up with some Peak Oil ranting back on 18th May 2005.
2007 Nov 07 Gavin