That’s it!
I know I shouldn’t… in fact, I know I have no real evidence as such… but I’m doing it based on gut feel.
Peak Oil occurred at some point between December 2005 and now.
Now, of course the market doesn’t know this yet, or refuses to accept this. But when it does, the shit will hit the fan. Well, maybe not that bad, but from a market point of view it isn’t going to be nice.
So, why have I come out with this bold statement.
A while back, I found a story on Bloomsberg, and reported about it on this blog.
Here, the Saudi’s we stating We May Not Need to Raise Oil Capacity After 2009
This ‘could’ be interpreted as, we will not BE ABLE to do it.
On Tuesday, my cynical eye caught the front page of the Financial Times, which was reporting this.
Opec on Tuesday warned western countries that their efforts to develop biofuels as an alternative energy source to combat climate change risked driving the price of oil “through the roof”.
Abdalla El-Badri, secretary-general of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the powerful cartel was considering cutting its investment in new oil production in response to moves by the developed world to use more biofuels.
I call their bluff!
In reality, the price will go up anyway, because they can’t meet demand… and they’ll just blame it on bio-fuel.
A guy called Andy Hunt (who has this great website) pretty much calls it the same way as me. This is from what he posted at the Powerswitch forums.
Having now read the article, it seems to me like OPEC are using biofuels as the scapegoat for not being able to raise their production.
They known damn well that biofuels haven’t a hope in hell’s chance of replacing oil. For them to say that they can’t see any ’security of demand’ is a total joke. On the one hand they say that biofuels will fail, but on the other hand they are saying that they are worrying enough about them succeeding to cut investment.
It’s baloney. The IEA have said that OPEC need to invest billions to raise production, and OPEC have said they will do it because otherwise questions will be asked. Now OPEC have the perfect opportunity to default on their bluff and put the blame squarely on biofuels when depletion bites and oil prices, in OPEC’s words, ‘go through the roof’.
To me, this is the surest sign yet that we are at peak. OPEC knows damn well what is about to occur in the oil market. We have been warned.
Other thoughts for the day
Madness.
Dom has an interesting link and story at his blog. Microsoft are just a bunch of idiots.
And finally here in the UK, there is a story that’s really starting to get on my nerves. It’s to do with the disapperence of a young 3 year old in Portugal. Now, something about the whole thing ‘just doesn’t seem right’. This huge media circus, the apparent lack of emotion from the parents (who are on their various tours around Europe). Finally, a German journo asked the question that myself and a few colleagues and my friends have been thinking…
“Earlier that same day, the couple were asked in a press conference in Germany whether they had something to do with the four-year-old’s abduction.”
The McCanns replied “Without going into too much detail, we were with a large group of people, and you know there is absolutely no way Kate and I are involved in this abduction.”
Interesting, I thought they were out for a meal on their own??? Their ’story’ keeps changing and nobody in the British press seems keen on pointing out that ultimately the parents did leave a 3 year old, and her younger twins alone.
Of course, this question by the German journo has caused outrage in the rag-top tabloid press in the UK. They are probably just pissed off that they weren’t the ones who asked the question… plus the fact that The Sun and Daily Mirror are still fighting WW2 and hate the Germans 
